Neil Abercrombie for Governor

Last July, journalist and columnist Bob Jones said you could "bet on it": longtime U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie would run for governor.

Even though Abercrombie said no to challenging Gov. Linda Lingle in 2006, it looks like the time is right for a run in 2010. There has yet to be an official announcement, but Abercrombie has been open about the prospect... and former local reporter Angela Keen said that he flat-out confirmed his gubernatorial run tonight during a performance at "Frost Nixon" at Manoa Valley Theater.

When Abercrombie declined to run in 2006, Hawaii Democrats were unable to put up much of a fight against Lingle's reelection. But Abercrombie has long said Lingle's support is flimsier than it looks... perhaps especially now. Abercrombie has been taking Lingle to task for dissing Hawaii-born president-elect Barack Obama (she toured the Mainland to campaign for the McCain-Palin ticket), and with the recent tectonic shift in national politics, the stage seems to be set for a Democrat to recapture Washington Place.

Technically, Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona is running for the state's top job, but his prospects seem about as strong as Democrat Randy Iwase's were in 2006.

What could make the gubernatorial race interesting in 2010 are two prominent politicians: former Congressman Ed Case, who seems to be running for the Office of Whatever's Attainable, and current Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hanneman, who's stubborn refusal to rule out a gubernatorial bid has been translated by many to be confirmation of such.

As soon as Abercrombie formally announces his plans, Case, Abercrombie, and others with an eye on the 7th 5th floor of the Hawaii State Capitol will likely quickly follow suit. But there's a lot opening up in 2010, which Bob Jones calls a "witching year." In addition to the race for governor, voters will decide on both of Hawaii's seats in Congress and four Honolulu City Council seats.